Originally Posted by
6ix9ineYearFlow
I'm looking at F9 & NK even though I'm young enough to go to a legacy and have a solid career there. I think the QOL at the ULCCs are very good, particularly living in base. I value the time off and flexibility over the potential career earnings.
The ULCC is fascinating to me in that I think it has a strong outlook and huge potential upside. The potential limiting factor, in my non-economist rudimentary understanding of the industry, is that while the ULCC model has done well in Europe, Europe doesn't have a Southwest Airlines-like airline. That's not to say NK or F9 won't succeed in their growth plans, but the market is just that much more crowded. I think the disadvantage SWA has is that they're hardly "low cost" to the consumer these days; younger fleets, cheaper labor, and true ancillary revenue generation at the ULCCs gives them a true cost advantage over SWA (for now).
Add to that the rapid growth per se. Retirements are high at the legacies because a lot of the pilots there have a whole lot of longevity. Growing at 15% a (nonCOVID) year, most of the FOs and CAs aren’t even approaching the top of the pay scale yet, while many if not most legacy pilots went over 12 years seniority decades ago.
Even were payscales identical (and they certainly aren’t) the average personnel costs at F9 or NK would be considerably less than at the legacies.