Originally Posted by Skycap876

I don't mean to be a voice of negativity, however I have been in this industry over 20 years.

Kit Darby and countless industry forecasting organizations alike, have been touting a pilot shortage for over 25 years.

There is and will never be an actual shortage of pilots willing to work for Major and Legacy carriers. The data they present is inherent to "some" validity in actual age demographics and attrition but hinges on several mathematical fallacies driven by speculation. There will be aggressive periods of hiring and growth but all the forecasting models assumes a par-for-par replacement of individuals and aircraft and is combined with additional growth; which is extremely difficult to forecast. This is very dynamic and unpredictable industry that primarily is supported by leisure and discretionary travel. Economic downturns, pandemics, technology changes, consolidations, operational strategy shifts and various other factors constantly change the demand for pilots and aircraft.

The key in this industry is to have a bit of luck combined with persistence. Generally speaking, chasing upgrades, domiciles, or pay packages is risky. If your fortunate enough to land at an employer of choice, staying the course is one of the best predictors of future stability.

There is however reduced enrollment in pilot training programs as well as entry level regional airlines who are forced to reduce hiring preferences in order to meet demand. We had experienced this at my carrier over the last 2 years when we were forced to lower hiring standards to fill demand. We never however had any shortage of individuals arriving for class or completing training.

From what I have experienced there will always be opportunities, but opportunities for all and anyone will not follow the sales and marketing practices of forecasting entities that sell aircraft, training programs or in some cases hopeful pyramid schemes.