1. There will NEVER be a shortage of pilots at the majors.
2. Majors will generally (but not invariably) prefer retired military fixed wing pilots over anyone else since they are cheap to insure (already got Tricare), have little experience with unions, already have a pension, are not much of a training risk, and are so damn happy to actually be OFF when they are not at work that they tend to be undemanding and cause little trouble. And they’ll never take a military leave like the Reservists may have to do if they get orders. But most of all, if they are retired they are going to be about 42, meaning they are going to spend a fairly small amount of their major career as a senior Captain. Granted, you are going to only get 23 years out of them, but less than half of that time will be in the top longevity pay scale.
3. Honorably discharged military fixed wing pilots (jumping out 10 years after UPT) are probably their next favorite, followed by reservists, the latter because of military leave.
4. As long as their regional is contributing to the bottom line of the major management would like to keep them there as long as possible. Basically they would like to flow only people so senior that if they don’t flow them some other major is going to grab them, although sometimes to keep new hires coming they will juice up the flow a little as a recruiting gimmick. But basically do the math. If you start with a 30 year old new hire FO and flow them at 10 years, they are 40 when their seniority gets reset to zero. They have 25 years to climb the pay scale. But flow them in five years, they’ll spend five more years at the top of the scale. Their average flying hour cost to management will be higher for the younger hires.
Anyway, disabuse yourself of the notion that management considers you one of their own. They don’t. They’ll keep you working at the lowest wage they can convince you to take for as long as they think they can get away with it. But that’s not the real pi$$er. The pilots at your major - at least many of them - would just as soon that management screwed you over, because once they themselves made the jump to major they are benefitting from the money management makes on you. Heck, a lot of pilots at majors don’t even want to “waste” negotiating capital on first year FOs at the major because guys on probation really aren’t part of the game yet. Ever look at the UPS hourly rates?
SERIOUSLY? $50 an hour to be an FO on a 747? No, $50 an hour because nobody looks after newbies much at contract time. They aren’t yet really part of the gang.
Look at your own pay scales. A CA who has been at PSA for 4 years is taking an hourly cut their first year as an FO at AA. And the longevity gets reset back to zero. And they are now pulling reserve at some junior base. And when they finally do hold a line, it’ll be a junior line for quite awhile.
Now that doesn’t mean it’s not worth it to climb the ladder, because it is - at least eventually. What it means is that nobody is going to give you anything they don’t have to, not management, not even the pilots at your major. So BE COMPETITIVE. Get your hours in, get your apps in, get your four year degree finished, and hustle, going to all the major hiring events you can. Hustle, because nobody else is going to do it for you and seniority is everything in this business.