ZeroTT

Any reason AA couldn’t flow the whole airline at once, ie staple them

Allegheny

Could they? Yes probably. Would they? Highly unlikely.

When the last of the Chapter 11 filings were complete and all the regional scope had been given, the mainline pilot unions at US and AA had nothing left to bargain with over scope. There was no more scope relief to be granted and no more scope relief to be recovered. The company just didn't want to go there and the Unions would not entertain additional relief.

So APA has no say in what the company does with any of the wholy owned regionals with the exception of current aircraft size and weight restrictions. A pilot at any of the wholy owned is not on the AA seniority list / APA contract, until he is "flowed" or comes by direct hire. Giving preference to one pilot regional group vs. the other has not been shown to be good policy. Selling out your contract for preference on flow would be very short sighted. (I not saying you are implying that, just that it is shortsighted for both the pilots and the company.) The company needs pilots at the regional level and at the mainline.

Taking actions that would upset the "apple cart" of the flow agreements is not in the company's best interest. Showing a preference could hurt recruitment at Envoy and Piedmont. Across the board flow enhancements are a possibility. The company is already offering bonuses.

Short answer, is "can they", YES. "Will they?" NO

arbalist1

If I had to guess, there's a number at which the regional begins costing more money than the value it produces. As pilot pay increases, that margin will likely narrow. However, I think a lot of us like to think the pilots are the only cost that's taken into account. You have to remember that regionals also pay less to FAs, gate agents, ramp crew, maintainers, schedulers, Chief pilots, dispatchers, etc. Pilot pay would have to increase so much that it outweighs the savings of everything else.

Now regional aircraft availability looking ten years in the future is also something to consider that may skew the calculus towards killing regional airlines.

I believe there's still a lot of cost savings to be had for a while. Which can also be good news because that also means that the pay arms race will be taking off again to new heights.

ZeroTT

Maybe better question: can AA flow the entire WO workforce at once. Ie a staple that isn’t technically a staple

FlyGuy2021

The problem really becomes that it would hurt the ability to hire others off of the street and would it backlog the training department. There would have to be some sort of seat locks in place with the Union before this started to prevent a training disaster.

Let's say AA brings all of the 175s and the CRJ900's over to the mainline certificate along with enough pilots from PSA and Envoy to cover them. The vacancy bid for those classes would be for the 175 and CRJ900 FO only. The pilots already on property may want to go back to be a RJ captain at G1 pay. It would be a training nightmare with people moving up and down.

Then, anyone after that would also have to bid the CRJ and ERJ out of training as those former PSA and Envoy pilots bid off of the lower paying Group 1 aircraft and move up to 737/320. That would mean that all new hires are stuck on G1 airplanes (lower pay). If you are a military pilot, why go to AA and know that you will be stuck in a G1 airplane for a couple years at lower pay when you can go somewhere else and make 737/320 pay.


Although, many Delta new hires are essentially getting G1 pay for the 220. The 220 pays $128 second year while the Airbus pays about $140.

ZeroTT

Yes - challenging. but the alternative (eg united hiring 20% of WO captains) might be worse


Fences go a long way … especially if APA bites on something like 1000 121 or military time to bid off group 1. Or a new group 1 captain pay scale of $130/hr increasing $x/month for 24 months to $2xx

FlyGuy2021

I agree that there will need to be a fence and some sort of agreement with APA. It could happen, but there will be a lot of moving pieces to this one. It would likely be worse for the senior flows at the airlines - anyone that was supposed to flow in the next few months without any agreement. They will likely be seat locked or fenced into a regional aircraft at AA. Without such an agreement, they would have been able to hold a G2 aircraft instead. The middle of the list would likely benefit the most because their flow time would be cut down from several years to just a few months, even though they are still stuck on a G1 aircraft.

ZeroTT

Bringing WO in house doesn’t change the massive hiring needs for both Group 1 and group 2. Anyone Staple flowed will have people under them quickly.

snuffleupagus69

Youre definitely stirring the pot with this post.....But stir away I like it!
I would say youre spot on with this comment. I believe we had more than 50% of our CA's "opt in" to the retention bonus. So mainline knows that throwing money at the problem will temporarily solve it. Personally I do not think attrition will stop. But that matrix wont show for another two months post retention plan. Pilots will just take the mainline offer CJO and pay back the bonus.

Can they staple WITH a fence. YES!!! Will they? Yea eh maybe someday.

I'm out if they take Margaret too. Hell noooooo

ZeroTT

I’d say only 50% of captains taking the retention bonus is cause for nuclear level panic