Originally Posted by
fxpanda
…so, assuming one is just starting flight training from zero hours at this very moment, the big wave will most likely be gone by the time one is in a position to be able to apply at the majors, correct?
Without sugar coating it, yes. Even people getting hired at the legacies today are more on the top of the wave than the front. Seniority progression will likely be rapid, but will begin to stall about halfway up the list. Many may be left with the choice of good money and great quality of life as a senior wide body FO or great money and poor quality of life as a junior narrobody captain. It’s still a pretty great choice to have to make (and to have the choice at all), but people hired today won’t slingshot straight to the top 25% overnight.
Your timing will likely give you the ability to find a regional job pretty quickly and possibly catch the very back end of the legacy hiring wave, but be prepared for slow seniority progression and to sit in the right seat for a very long time. There’s still nothing wrong with that by any means, but manage your expectations based on whatever age you are. Also, don’t set your sights on just the legacies. When you get to the point of applying, always look at airlines that might be undergoing rapid growth. Seniority is everything in this career. It will control your schedule, if you work weekends and holidays, and what seat you sit in. Basically, your entire quality of life revolves around your seniority. You’ll eventually learn that quality of life is really all that matters in this career and an airplane is an airplane. Don’t sell your soul and allow your kids to forget who you are just so you can fly a 777. Years ago pilots took a chance on making a career at a small, but growing, airline that only flew 737s named Southwest. I don’t think any of them regretted their decision. Good or bad, you never know what this industry will bring.
Don’t psych yourself out too much about being on the wrong side of the wave. You’ll still be able to have a great career. Just manage your expectations based on the reality of the industry. Also, save yourself the stress of trying to “plan” your own career path too much. Enjoy the ride and take the shots as they come. You will be much happier in the end.