Originally Posted by Excargodog

NK just updated their APC profile and now list 163 aircraft and 2681 pilots, for an average of 16 pilots per aircraft. Normally (prepandemic) NKs utilization rate has exceeded 12 hours per aircraft per day and the ability of lineholders to drop to zero requires a higher number of pilots per aircraft than some airlines. The same profile is predicting about 293 aircraft in the fleet by 2027. That would imply about 4700 pilots by that time. According to Aerocrew News, NK will be retiring about 30-35 pilots a year in that timeframe climbing to about 45 a year thereafter. Adding in medical attrition (hey there’s a reason for that own occupation LTD insurance) about 240 guys/gals on the seniority list right now - most of them Captains - will be gone by the end of 2027.

Most airlines have more CAs than FOs (roughly 55-45 ratio) because CAs are less productive (more vacation time, more soft time, more LCA/OE duties, more sick leave (although FMLA may be changing the latter) and right now NK probably has a ballpark of 1400 CAs. In 2027, 1160 of those will still be around against a 2027 requirement for roughly 2800 CAs implying 1640 upgrades between now and then. That would be enough upgrades for all of the current 1300ish FOs and pretty much everyone hired before 2022 - all assuming NK actually makes its growth projections. After that further upgrades would be limited to replacement of attrition at a rate of ~50 CAs a year unless there was continuing new growth, which though that was averaging 15-17% per year prepandemic certainly can’t continue indefinitely.

There actually may be faster upgrades if the attrition from hiring of NK junior people by other airlines resumes. While HR does their best to choose people actually committed to a career at NK, first year pay really isn’t all that competitive with many majors and many of the legacies - with much older pilot groups are going to be retiring 6-7% a year in the near future. Convincing some people to give up a year or two NK seniority to jump ship somewhere else for more money and the same or better career progression is gonna happen, causing quicker upgrades to those behind them. And, as the commenter above mentions, a lot of people are content to hang out as a senior FO - pretty much in charge of their own schedule.