Originally Posted by
Excargodog
Right now there is an ‘attrition’ thread on the Alaska forum as well. They too have an attrition problem - just to a much lesser degree. The difference is the contract. While there’s also needs upgrading, NKs needs it even moreso. It clearly DOES make a difference. It seems difficult to believe that that would be lost on anyone.
It is possible, I suppose, that all major managements are just praying for a competitor to go Chapter 11 so they can fall like dominos into bankruptcy (and if the regional collapse continues that may indeed happen) hoping they can reset CBAs through bankruptcy judges but that really doesn’t seem likely. Or that a 2-3 year recession would allow time to spool up ab ignition programs and get rid of the 1500 hour rule and the 1000 hr upgrade rule (because the latter is already hurting viability if the regionals) but those things seem like a longshot.
And as others have repeatedly said, on a two hundred pax airplane a $2 increase in ticket price will fund a $50-$70 an hour increase in pay for two pilots (depending on trip length). It’s really the cheapest fix and I suppose we’ll get there in the end.
I’m one of the ones saying $1.91 pays for a $50 per hour per seat raise and 15% DC on and 80% full 320. Round numbers and all, and I’m leaving a lot of fudge in there.
I’m sure the bankruptcy game will be played at some point, but the pilot contract arms race is going to play out first imoho. Yes, attrition is the subject of concern for everyone that’s not one of the Big 4 or Big Freight. It’s on our doorstep first because of our contract and because our upgrade time is no longer something special. Really I think each C suite is scared to step out and set the market. Original thought and risk taking aren’t in great supply in upper management. ULCC’s will have to act first for self preservation. And likely up their games as successive contracts and MOU’s are signed. Or tag on Me Too clauses.
We all know what needs to happen. It isn’t happening. Parking the 319s to meet staffing instead of improving the contract would be very telling about management’s mindset. And disappointing given what needs to he open to have us staffed up for summer starting right the heck now.
I’m also sure that this was all gamed out some time ago, but I think the current level of attrition was an outlier outcome in their predictions.