Everybody has an opinion, but here is mine:

This is a unique opportunity for the L/ULCCs that may not come again for another decade. The regionals,, even good ‘career’ regionals like Republic and Skywest, are starting to come apart. Business models dependent on that feed are highly stressed right now and the demise of many of those regionals will stress them further. And that demise is also going to open up gates in hubs throughout the country. It is an awesome time to open up new routes in competition to some of the legacies, and despite the mantra of ‘we bring in new passengers and aren’t in competition with the legacies,’ in a lot of places we are, or at least they are in competition with NK. Just look up ‘the Southwest effect.’ And increasingly, as their business and international travel lags, the legacies are paying attention to their economy sections, unbundling fares, doing more VFR and point to point flying, even with aircraft unsuited or poorly configured for it. And most of the legacies simply no longer have the free cash flow - not right now - to allow them to bracket a ULCC flight with a couple of deeply discounted loss-leader legacy economy flights like they once did, and already have done with startups like Avelo, not against NK and probably not even against F9.

This is the ULCCs big chance, with open gates and decreased competition and a lot of regional guys about to see their companies dissolve who would be happy to come to NK, if the CBA were brought up to where it needs to be. I expect management to pressure the pilots - it’s against their religion to give up a dime they can avoid giving up - but I don’t think they are stupid enough to miss a golden opportunity.