Originally Posted by
GoCats67
I think this is accurate in some ways but it ignores the "big chance" this is for the big 4.
The chance for them is to focus their hiring on as many pilots from the ULCCs as possible. Balancing their hiring something like 3 to 1 of ULCC guys vs regional guys, will allow them to desimate the ULCC staffing model while also showing the regionals that guys there can come straight to AA,DL,FDX,WN,UA,UPS rather than taking a detour to the ULCCs. So can the training capacity of the ULCCs withstand the short term spike in attrition? Can you hire/train enough in the next 3 months to withstand the attrition that will happen in the next 6 months. If you cannot then the summer is a huge problem. I think this is already a major problem at the regionals, but I also think that AA, DL, and UA recognize this and since they currently represent the majority of the hiring that is happening, they have the ability to change the target of their hiring and have it start/continue to inflict real pain on the ULCCs.
I am not sure what the plan/capacity is at Spirit, but seeing the plan at Frontier of 40 a month in the hiring tells me they are not going to keep up. Not sure what Spirit's current hiring plan is, and not sure how successful they are at getting the number they want in class, but figure you have to start by late Mar or early Apr to be an asset that can help by June sometime. So that means that hiring in the next 2 to 3 months (at the most) is what needs to match your attrition between now and the end of June.
Since this is sort of a unique situation, your analysis is likely equally probable with mine. But I think it ignores a few things.
The comeback from COVID has ALSO placed an enormous training burden in the legacies and despite some of them trimming their fleets, they all still have multi type fleets. Every single vacancy bid creates a domino effect, not just one new type rating but oftentimes two or three, and some of those training departments are still trying to catch up on the training required of their existing pilots. For NK every single pilot can fly every single aircraft, and somebody moving into the left seat is a simple upgrade, not a new type for three other guys as they play the 737 to 777 to 778 shuffle with FOs. The training needs of a multi type fleet are VASTLY greater than those of a single type fleet and always will be. And as long as those different types pay different amounts, there will always be churn. And that is costly, even just as downtime, because people in classes and sims are not flying the line. Once again I see this as - advantage ULCC.
And the breakup of the regionals is going to hurt the legacies far more than the ULCCs. Already the regionals are having to contract their schedules due to losing so many CAs. You are going to find a lot of FOs stranded - hired during COVID or slightly before who spent a year on reserve who will have four or five hundred hours of 121 time - nowhere near upgrade - who will fly less and less because there aren’t enough CAs to support the flying. Look at the bonuses the regionals are offering for DECs. They are desperate. So when the more vulnerable of the regionals go under because they don’t have enough CA’s to fly their lines, where are those mid-level FOs going to go? To start over at another regional? He//, why not a ULCC, new and more desirable type. As long as your seniority is shot anyway, why not? You might like it enough to make a career of it, rather than starting all over as the plug at another regional.
And yes, management is going to have to pony up some money to make it happen, certainly give insurance coverage and better pay to new hires and more to everyone else as well, but they already knew they’d have to do that at the next CBA anyway. They just need to not drag it out and to do it a few years quicker than they thought, to take advantage of a huge opportunity.