In the SHORT term, it is going to be a mess. Just read the regional threads and see the problems they are having already. But I think you forget the thing driving legacy hiring. It’s RETIREMENTS, both those incentivized early in COVID and the age related transitions ongoing. Of course newbies are going in at the bottom. Lacking any seniority whatsoever, they go into whatever vacancy the company wants them in. But it’s the retirements at the top that start the domino effect in training. These are - in general - the most desirable slots around, and anybody who isn’t seat locked can bid on them. In A ULCC you have basically two levels of pay at any seniority, FO and CA. But with four or five types, often with different levels of pay and operating out of different bases - some more senior than others - the incentive to move from fleet to fleet is a very real one and the churn from retirements is always there. That is going to be a HUGE overhead cost for them in the future - not just that it brings with it the cost of multiple sims and multiple FAA training programs, but that you are PAYING those people and they aren’t generating revenue while they are going through the program.

You better believe when a senior 787 guy retires, other people will want that job. The guy who gets it will be the most senior guy who bids for it, not necessarily the most senior 787 FO. When NK or F9 loses a CA, it costs an upgrade of someone in the same type and current in the aircraft and the loss of productivity of that person and their pay while in training as well as the cost of the recruiting and training and a couple months of the pitifully poor first year pay for the NK or F9 newbie. But type ratings brought on by retirements are often a new type rating for an existing CA of ten years and their loss of productivity. The money involved isn’t even close. It’s a HUGE ULCC advantage, and don’t let management try to convince you any different.

The ULCCs are NOT at a disadvantage to the legacies in this situation, they have opportunities they have never had before. And will it cost them money to seize those advantages? Yeah, but the next CBA was going to cost them money anyway barring a recession or a couple of legacies going bankrupt, and they are bright enough to know that.