Originally Posted by
Andy
Okay, let me walk you through this one more time. The regionals are falling apart because every other airline that's a step up from regionals is hiring their pilots.
Once the regionals are fully picked over, LUV + UPS + FedEx + the legacy carriers are going to be looking for pilots. They will offer a bunch of ULCC pilots (who have apps in) interviews. Most of them will be hired.
News flash: this is already happening at the ULCCs.
You need to move from the third stage to the fourth stage of grief on this because the big 6 are going to be hiring not only to replace retirements but also for growth. And that hiring's going to happen for a long time.
It’s not that I don’t UNDERSTAND the argument you are making, it’s simply that I don’t agree with it. Ultimately, it isn’t your opinion or mine that makes any difference, it’s how the Fed decides to handle inflation.
If they force the cost of borrowing money up the heavily indebted (or leveraged) airline companies that are not yet back to 2019 numbers are probably headed for bankruptcy. Most airlines bond ratings are in junk territory already. And if any get in worse troubles the bond vigilantes will be all over them, trying to feast like vultures on the weakling. You can continue with your diatribe about major airline accounting gimmicks all you want, but history says that airline bankruptcies are rather common.
The airline business has always been a crapshoot. You place your bet and I’ll place mine. Time will tell whose bet will win.