Originally Posted by Voski

I’ve read the ‘Southwest or Spirit’ thread: it was a great thread, however, most of the advice that was advocating for remaining at Spirit had to do with Spirit’s growth, upgrade time, schedule flexibility, and upside of getting acquired by Southwest, JetBlue, or another legacy. Frontier Holdings announcing their $6.6 billion deal to acquire Spirit has serious enough consequences that it’s worth revisiting under a new lens.


PROS OF LEAVING FOR SWA
+ I have very minimally invested with NK — and young enough where I could have around 30 years at SWA
+ I live less than 1 hr. 30 min. from MDW; living in base is huge
+ Earning potential is higher as a SWA FO than an NK/F9 Captain on reserve
+ SWA has retirements (according to APC) steady in the 2030s
+ SWA has a long history of stability and arguably the best overall financials of any U.S. carrier right now
+ SWA is planning on hiring 1300+ pilots this year and 3000+ over the next 2 years; lots of room for growth and seniority movement if hired early
+ No redeyes
+ Free health insurance

PROS OF STAYING FOR THE F9/NK MERGER
+ I live on the north side of Chicago, so it’s a shorter drive to ORD — that is, if the base exists after merger
+ NK has great schedule flexibility in the ability to add/drop/swap — JCBA dependent
+ Growth to 493 airframes by 2027 — if they can retain pilots & FAs
+ Pilots have a lot of leverage right now in the JCBA — if the economy holds together for the next 3-4 years
+ The ULCC model seems resilient and that demand for cheap travel is there
+ The Airbus is a nicer flight deck

… and that’s just it: most of the pros for staying at NK for the merger are based on incomplete information about the merger — if it even gets approved in the first place. This career has lots of risks and potential for volatility, but Southwest is attractive to me because of the relative stability and predictability of the airline. The things I love about Spirit will likely look a lot different after the JCBA. Additionally, hitching my career wagon to Spirit/Frontier seems like a bigger gamble over a 30 year time horizon as the only way to advance is due to growth and growth alone. Retirements at F9/NK are negligible for the next 20 years. I have some serious doubts about our ability to grow without drastic intervention by management.

All that said —
I am leaning strongly toward SWA should I get the offer to come over.

1. What am I missing from my decision calculous that I should consider - good or bad - about leaving for Southwest?

2. Are there any things I may be missing that would be a reason to stay for the merger?

3. Lastly, do you think that Southwest is insulated from the rise of the F9/NK merger? Are they a serious threat to SWA and why so/why not?