This is exactly the point though. Nobody knows where the industry will be in the future. However, the one thing that has always proved true time and time again is to never chase that golden ring. Each time pilots think “this time is different”, but it never is. Get yourself on a seniority list and hang on. As zapbrannigan said before, hitch your horse to a wagon and go along for the ride.

I’ve found it funny that one golden rule of advice that experience pilots used to give to new pilots when they ask about which regional to go to is, “don’t go somewhere based on upgrade time. Today’s upgrade times are for people on property now. Not necessarily for those hired now”. Yet, now, people are now falling all over themselves because WB FO and NB CA have gone super junior in difficult to commute to junior bases resulting in eternal reserve at UAL. A LOT can change in the 2 years it will take to hold any captain spot or the 5 years it will take to hold ORD captain for someone hired today. All it will take is a new contract with better reserve language and it will likely turn overnight. Going somewhere based on that alone is foolish.

The OP already lives in base at NK. IF everything goes as planned with the merger he will have a new contract soon enough with better pay (if the new merged company actually wants to attract pilots) and will be well rooted in a combined 4500 pilot seniority list that will increase to 7500 pilots by the time the current order book is complete. I’m sure more orders will be on the way before he retires as well. Yes mergers can be turbulent, but it’s part of this industry. Every airline that anyone is trying to leave to right now (SWA, UAL, AA, DAL) has been through mergers before. Those airlines are still here after the merger drama ended and the sun continued to rise in the East and set in the West. Could the merger be risky? Sure. But no more risky than starting over somewhere new trying to reach that shining star that may not be as bright as you think.