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Old 04-09-2022 | 01:50 AM
  #65  
BeatNavy
Covfefe
 
Joined: Jun 2015
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Originally Posted by symbian simian
So 2 guys went to JB, and 1 hasn’t left yet, got it.
Based on orders, and investor publications, JB plans to grow 3%/yr for the next 6 years. NK plans 15%, and if half of that happens, it’s still twice what JB is planning. Pay difference is $10/hr. Upgrade a year earlier, and it pays the difference for the next 10 years.
Well, we started around 4200 this year and are planning on hiring 961 (for a net gain after attrition of 600-700 of that if we hire that many). A tad bit more than 3%. As far as deliveries, for the next 5 years that’s around 19 planes a year net after retirements/lease returns, or about 6.7% fleet growth YoY, with increased utilization (220 will have higher utilization than 190, requiring more pilots…and the LR/XLRs will also require more pilots due to being augmented). Not that ASM growth matters to pilots, but due to the upgauging, that’s also going uo double digits per year. So, 7+ % a year pilots for the next 5 years minimum unless they start retiring more planes with no replacement orders, but we are understaffed anyway, so it’ll likely remain 600+ a year (greater than 10%) for the foreseeable future. 961 is 21% of our current list. Factor attrition and call it a net of 500-600 this year it’s still 10-15%, if we net 700 from starting with 4200 (the goal) that’s over 20%. No matter how you crack it, jetblue isn’t stagnant, and is a lot closer to ULCC growth than 3%, and might actually surpass it this year depending on hiring and attrition.
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