Originally Posted by
AAL24
do you believe that Al? 10 years to WB CA? A newhire would need appx 11,000 pilots to retire to hold a WB CA position. Do we have 11k retirements in 10 years? That also assumes we don’t park the 777 fleet over the next decade. I think 20-25 years is best case scenario.
You are correct based on a static model for sure. I was curious and ran some numbers based on a static model of ~3500 to hold WB CA.
For a 2014 hire 15 years
Oct 2021 hire 17 years
May 2022 hire 20 years (we hired a **** ton between the former and latter)
Maybe I’m wrong, I actually expected the number to drop for 2021 hires below that of 2014 hires. Obviously if we actually get more widebodies that would change all of this, also bidding behavior could change this as well as we have a ton of senior WB FO’s, not sure if the younger generation will bid like that or not.