Can’t say, but it is reasonable

 

I'd think it's too optimistic. It's easy enough to make a better SWAG - go to the MIT Airline Data Project, click on 'The DATA', research several airlines (I'd recommend AA/DL/UA), click on the bottom link - employee data and analysis, and figure out what the actual growth rate is. Quick estimate was AA has approx 40% more pilots today than it did 25 years ago. That's 1.6% but on an annual basis it's 1.4%.

https://web.mit.edu/airlinedata/www/default.html

 

In Dec 2013 how many pilot were on the active AA list (not including furloughed)?

Airways had 3500 IIRC and the west was around 500 1500.

 

West really only had around 500 pilots going into the US/AA merger? Wild.

 

OK I was way off, total between US-E and US-W was around 5000. Maybe West had 1500?

Looks like AA had 8500 active (not furloughed) at time of merger, so combined was 13,500 in Dec 2013. If you believe long term staffing targets of ~16000, we've "grown" 20% over 12 years. And that includes the replacing of a lot of RJs with mainline equipment, something that probably won't continue.

So 1.4%, which is basically what Slice said.

 

2009 AA/US/AW ASM was 222.5 billion(?). 2025 ASM's was 299.4 billion (?). 34.6% over 16 years. That's a total change of 2.2%, or 1.9% annually.
Just showing that ASM growth, which is what Wall St and the financial people are interested in, is often greater than the pilot corps increase to create the additional ASM's.

Using your 2013 end of year numbers the AA/US ASM was 232.4 billion. 13 years later it's 229.4 billion. 29%, 2.2%, or an annual increase, again, of 1.9%.

It would be interesting to compare it to GDP. Years ago I think ASM growth for the industry was closer to GDP. Then, at least for the legacy airlines, it lagged, and perhaps 66% (2/3's) of GDP was the 'new' normal. With 1.9% AA's ASM growth totaled 29% over the 13 years 2013-2025. U.S. GDP was 30% higher. So the hope to relink legacy growth to GDP seems to be on track??? <amateur public math warning!!

 

I'm impressed you were able to find historical ASM's. Guessing a lot of the growth came from replacing 140 seat S80s with 172 seat 737s and up gauging the 156 "more room in coach" 737s to 172 as well.

 

I just flew with an FO she showed me MyFlightCareer.com they charge $5 but pretty slick… we used to have my AA career but I think he retired.

 

Also found out there is a free one pilotsenority.com both have good info

 

MIT Airline Date Project. Not related to some special skill that I have. I steal from everyone. ;-)

Airlines love increasing gauge. A bit more fuel burn to carry the weight and the increased passengers, if the demand exists, is a lot of extra profit even at low yields. Delta made $25/passenger last year? Through some ID90's on there and they're making more from each ID90 than they are for the average paying passenger.