Originally Posted by Margaritaville

Here's the problem with all these seniority calculators that people don't understand. They're dumb technology. They only account for age of pilots and current fleet number as of the day they are used. Sure at the standard lapse rate of pilots making it to 65 and the current fleet, someone in their 40s may only make it to 3500-4500 on a list of 14000-ish (top 25%), but what if I told you that by the time they get there there will be over 20,000 pilots on that list (top 15%) and hundreds more aircraft than today? Also many pilots aren't going to make it to mandatory retirement age whatever that ends up being, none of which is accounted for.