Originally Posted by
Floy
There is a difference in that time is not on their side as it has been in the past. They're bleeding pilots and very senior guys at that. On one hand I'm worried and surprised that they are taking so long with the crisis attrition happening and it makes me think that yet again, we'll be underwhelmed. On the other hand it may play right into the expectations and plans that management has. I mean, what would it take to keep pilots at SkyWest? Industry changing rates and work rules. They essentially have to blow up the regional model and then hope that they can pay for it in the long run by putting other regionals out of business.
AA WO have already blown up the regional model. They are putting the other regionals out of business, slowly. This is why (in my opinion) the 135 exists: they know that they can't compete - there isn't a legacy there to back the losses incurred by $90/hr rates - and we will involuntarily shrink. In order to stay alive they will use retirees and 500tt FOs to keep the EAS flying alive but the 5500 deep seniority list OO is a thing of the past.
I'm expecting a middle of the road TA with 1st year pay in the $60 range and top out pay in $150 range. Anything more is probably unsustainable under the contracted rates. There will be a mass exodus, and there will be people that stay anyway. Whoever stays - that's the size of the new SkyWest. They understand they have to adapt or die right now, and I cannot see a world wherein SGU wants to compete side by side with an AA WO right now.