I'm going to speculate and say that IF the current rate of hiring and aircraft deliveries continue at the current rate a 3-4 year upgrade is certainly possible. I was hired mid last year, already have 600+ below me and the last upgrade award went to someone approximately 250 ahead of me on the seniority list. Considering they're hiring 400 - 450 a year, it's feasible that I could upgrade before my 39 month seat lock expires.

Of course in this industry we all run the risk of getting our pants pulled down at short notice, but I remain hopeful and optimistic.