Originally Posted by flyprdu

I deleted the post because I knew it was kicking the political hornets' nest. That said, I will admit we are overdue for a correction of some kind. Will it be a 2008 Lehman Brothers-esque collapse? In my opinion, doubtful. The US is weathering the inflation storm much better than the rest of the planet, as indicated by the strength of the dollar. Any sort of economic slowdown will be cushioned by *relatively* affordable goods and services from overseas.

Also, the pilot shortage does not stop in a recession. So short of a music-stopping catastrophe, like the 2008 credit freeze or another border-closing global pandemic, air travel demand should remain within norms. And if it's anywhere close to normal, then the Big 3 will need to find 35,000 pilots in the next 5 years just to stay at current levels.

Barring a complete disaster, I predict the pilot leverage forecast to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future.


In conclusion, do not vote based on what you think the economy is going to do next year. You are probably wrong. Vote for or against the TA on its merits alone. If you love it, ratify it. If you hate it, send it back. The demand for pilots will remain largely unchanged for the next half decade. Do not let externalities affect your decision making.

Thank you for listening to my Ted Talk.