Originally Posted by
conquestdz
One man's bravery is another's stupidity much as one man's "capitulating to the fear of a downturn" is another's "making the most rational decision based on the best information available". This TA has the potential to be really big for us even though there are a couple holes in it. It seems to me that passing this is the logical move. If the economy does crash, we will be sitting pretty for a couple years with nice raises and QOL. If it doesn't, then the pilot shortage will become more acute, we will snap up with our peers as they scramble to compete, and we will continue to have the necessary leverage to fill those TA holes because no airline can afford to be behind in the job market if they want to grow or even stay the same size.
One factor you may not be considering is the political environment now versus what it may look like when your new contract, assuming it gets ratified, becomes amendable.
Right now, you have what is arguably the
most pro-labor union presidential administration in history seated. You also have a Democratic majority on the NMB. The first factor probably played a large role in why railroad management capitulated to the railroad unions a couple of weeks ago as opposed to relying on Congress to intervene. The second factor is likely what allowed the unions to get released in an election year after only a few months in mediation. It allowed them to present a credible threat that they might go on strike.
When your contract becomes amendable in 2024 (right?), negotiations will likely stretch into 2025, at which time there may be a GOP president in office. Whoever that is is unlikely to have as positive of an orientation toward the idea of labor exerting power as the present administration. And the term of one of the Democratic NMB members expires in July 2025. If you end up in mediation and it extends beyond that date, it may be much more difficult for labor to get released from mediation. That means that you would pose much less threat to the company.
Getting this TA now may have had as much or more to do with the very favorable political environment as anything else. It may be no coincidence that since you guys have been in mediation for nearly a year, you just conducted an overwhelming strike authorization vote in May, and your company just witnessed what happened with the railroads, that you got this TA right now.