My sense is that if hiring continues at current rates, the NBCA situation will begin to find equilibrium. As new hires trend younger, they will, on average, be less established in life, more mobile, and more willing to relocate or put up with certain inconveniences that us older guys no longer have the stomach for. 2,000 more eligible pilots each year is a significant dynamic shift- even if expansion is creating more upgrade opportunities simultaneously.

My only concern is that as upgrade begins to be seen as a short-term expectation rather than a far-off achievement, people will begin to negotiate with that mindset. Contracts like TUMI play on that mindset & make the right seat financially unsustainable based on the justification that “you can always upgrade if you need the money”.