Originally Posted by GoodJet

*I added numbers to your questions to ease answering them

1. I don't like this comparison. These are completely different things. Weather is generally simple and not open to manipulation. However, sure. I often times see weather I don't like and I still go flying. For example: Juneau in February. That generally doesn't seem nice but we still go. I've also noticed how the weather forecast is wrong almost always for the greater Seattle area. A simple cross check with the raw data out there proves that it likely won't be snowing this weekend at Snoqualmie Summit. However, my friends who ski are jumping for joy about it. A simple cross check showed it extremely unlikely to snow at elevation except for possibly Tuesday and in the eastern Cascades at best. I almost always cross check the weather forecast and I'm usually surprised that trained professionals can be so wrong so often.

2. I still don't like this comparison. There are many kinds of trained economists. Guys on T.V. shouting about how the world is ending. Those saying everyone should put their investments in X. I have an accountant and an investment advisor and I basically just do what they say. I kind of think that economists that deal with the public are like the people forecasting weather on the news. Often wrong and they show a dumbed down version of what is out there. Except with economists you can clearly see a stark divide in what political camp they hang out in. Throw in emotion and you get a lot of wrong answers.

3. Again. Pretty bad comparison. A lot of business leaders are con men and shills. A lot of businesses go out of business. A lot of people make massive mistakes and lose a lot of money. Who do you trust?

4. No. I look at the demand for pilots. My educated guess on the overall picture for pilot demand despite what the economy can do and I made a decision based on that information. I didn't speculate on the short term vitality of the economy.

5. OK. That's a very nice statement. Once could easily look at this and say now is the time to demand better rather than cower in fear. Apparently, I was in the vast minority.