Originally Posted by
Excargodog
The problem IMHO is who the majors are hiring. If the majors were hiring a random mix of people from the regional seniority list it MIGHT be possible for the regionals to simply get smaller but to stay viable. But that isn’t the case. They are disproportionately hiring CAs and senior FOs. And that causes them to run afoul of the 1000 hr SIC before upgrade rule.
Regionals are bleeding people with high SIC and the ones left behind are not upgrade eligible while CAs are leaving without flying long enough to allow the FO next to them to become upgrade eligible. Right now regionals are surviving on DECs (that are becoming increasingly rare) and “lifer” CAs too close to retirement to benefit economically by a jump to the majors. It isn’t’t sustainable.
Barring a serious recession (which might happen) it’s a negative feedback loop. A death spiral.
It’s critical care but this is just supply chain. 1 year from now the problem will be over. We will have sufficient upgrade eligible FOs. Part of this problem is the LCCs and legacies that started hiring without TPIC. Shortly they will have enough.