You are missing the point. Every CA can generate - AT MOST - 1000 hrs a year of SIC flying. That’s it. There is no way around that. Every CA must AVERAGE 1000 hrs of SIC generated, just to pay the system back for the SIC they themselves used to become upgrade eligible. Every single CA leaving with less than 1000 hrs of TPIC is a net loss for the system in terms of generating the SIC hours needed even to maintain steady state. But FOs leaving for a major are an even greater problem. An 800 hour guy jumping to Frontier has cost the system 800 SIC hours, the equivalent to losing a CA with 1000 hrs of SIC and only 200 hrs of TPIC.

And the high time FOs are the FOs that you disproportionately lose, and the only replacements you bring in are zero time FOs which if you can’t fly them (because you don’t have the CAs TO fly them) or DON’T fly them (because you are devoting the available flight hours to getting more senior FOs upgrade eligible) are a total waste and economic drag on the system. And the FOs that have 1000 hrs of SIC and either can’t or won’t upgrade, are a total loss to the system in terms of addressing the current restraint.

Historically, you needed MORE CAs than FOs to be steady state because CAs being more senior had more vacation time, used more sick leave, were able to bid lighter schedules with more soft time, etc. Any regional with more FOs than CAs is likely already on a downward spiral. Yes, COVID caused early retirements brought it on faster than it would have otherwise happened but look at the aircraft orders for the majors. Even the LC/ULCCs have expansion plans. And look at the upcoming legacy retirement numbers.

Barring a major recession (which granted, could happen) I believe the regional model is in serious trouble.

https://youtu.be/49V1zgQTEO4