Originally Posted by Bluedriver

My opinion is F9 will be fine, and do fine. I don't think it will ultimately be nearly as large as they/you think it will be. Spirit at one point was on a trajectory to be huge and be a nationwide ULCC. The model really didn't scale as planned, and they haven't been able to stay in near as many markets, long term, as they thought, outside of MCO, LAS, FLL and other Florida. And their costs would continue to rise with longevity (relatively) and there is more new ULCC companies starting service all the time. When your one competitive advantage is being cheap, and remaining the cheapest is impossible/unsustainable over time, you aren't likely to continue your success indefinitely.

It got to the point that F9 and NK were cannibalizing each other's demand on those few markets with tremendous ULCC demand, and figured out they needed to merge to consolidate that market, as opposed to continually fighting over MCO/LAS/Florida.

We'll see, but I don't think F9 will take nearly all those deliveries in it's current form, just as NK will never take all of it's previously planned deliveries in it's current form.

Bottom line, go ahead and buy that new car, you'll be fine. Maybe cancel the order for the G650 though.