https://www.aircargoweek.com/boeing-forecasts-air-cargo-traffic-to-increase-twofold-over-the-next-20-years/
https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/more-signs-of-some-improvement-in-air-cargo/
Maybe I'm an optimist. But, I feel like covid caused us to have an "overinflated balloon" scenario. The problem is it had a slow leak. Now we're back to a realistic level of business. Realistic because of the global economy, inflation, and the war in Ukraine (airspace closures, high fuel prices). It's all adding up and we're feeling the pain. But, according to the long term outlook we are going to come out of this rut. It's hard to look past the DAL contract and farther than 6 months in front of your nose. But 8 months ago this was THE place to be. Why did all of you legacy guys come here? I'm sure it wasn't a decision that was taken lightly. What has changed? DAL landed a whopper, that's all! Now it's our turn to ink what is deserved.
Won't say too much about the legacies. But from my view in the cheap seats, they are now riding the wave with their inflated balloon scenario. Yes there's pent up demand for personal travel. But tell me how many families out there can afford to fly around the country/world more than once a year right now? I know my family has chosen the car over a plane multiple times. See "slow leak" above... it can't last forever. And as someone eluded to above, the legacy CEO sees an opportunity to pocket every ounce of that current demand. Hire, hire, hire... oh darn, we don't need this many anymore. Sounds a little like the purple covid balloon and hiring wave. And last I checked, they don't have similar protections like we do in terms of furlough. I don't think the govie is going to throw cash at the problem again outside of a world pandemic size downturn.
I do think the next few years, say out to 2025-2026, will be a transitional time for us. DRIVE and Network 2.0 are scary with using more belly freight and having McKinsey weiners poking around our palace. But as global demand increases (see link #1) and we become a more efficient operation in the same number of years... where may that lead us? I hope to a better place. And I'd like to believe that our highest forms of leadership want the same thing at the core of their efforts to trim the fat. I feel it's short sighted to act like this is about destroying Express and pilots lives.
Thank you all for your thoughts here, both positive and negative. It can be hard to stay healthy when drinking the APC poison. But, it's also a good thing people are identifying areas for improvement. Let's use that ammo and get ourselves the contract we deserve. Someone nailed it in another thread. Legacy CEOs should be saying "FedEx is different, we can never offer you what they get." It's not the other way around.
Less than 1 year and not going anywhere until there's a valid reason.