Maybe, maybe not. I could argue that wearing a lanyard is also a purely symbolic gesture & were at what, maybe 60% compliance with that? There are still a lot of guys out there who think the union is asking for too much. There’s TI guys who are upset about the recalls. Then there’s the guys who support the union but think a strike vote is unnecessary/too aggressive. If the vote were being held today, I don’t think you’d get anywhere near 90%. Of course, it isn’t, & this will be a test of the union’s ability to galvanize us on this issue in the meantime.

The company will also be testing its ability to mislead & fracture us. They will go right to the playbook- which means describing a future which is equally rosy (growth, expansion, widebody upgrades for all) if we follow their lead & terrifying (stagnation, loss of market share, furloughs) if we don’t. The old “take care of us today & we’ll take care of you tomorrow” line. They will use this tactic for the simple reason that it works. *cough* Pandemic LOA *cough*.

The company is confident that the methods of the past will work just as well today, so it will take an overwhelming result on this vote to convince them otherwise. Showing your hand is only effective when you have a good hand, & I’m not sure we have that presently. I would love nothing more than to eat my words on this point.