The age 67 change has gone from a peripheral long-shot idea to something that has a fairly reasonable chance of actually happening. In the current environment of everyone hiring at Vno, I would think that this change would have a profound impact on hiring. Obviously, each of AA/UA/DL is different and would be impacted slightly differently by this potential change.

I would think AA would be most affected by this short term. With the greatest number of retirements in the next few years and the most domestic-focused business model, I would think AA would probably continue to hire for a few months to get staffing up to where the company wants it to be (say another 500-700 to address some orders coming in), and then basically shutting down hiring for the next two years. That's not necessarily to say it would completely stop, but it would slow to a trickle. Of course, the long-term outlook of impressive seniority projections wouldn't go away.

I feel that Delta would roughly be in the same boat. With a goal of roughly 17-17.5k pilots on the seniority list, I would think Delta would hire for the next six months and then essentially completely shut down hiring. There wouldn't be a huge wave of retirements coming that the company would have to get out ahead of and any wide body order wouldn't bring aircraft on property for at least 2-3 years.

United seems like it could be least affected by this change. With only a mild-to-moderate number of retirements in the near future and massive growth plans, I could see UA slowing hiring somewhat but not stopping. A large number of WB captains could mean that those 65-67 decide to stay retired anyway, not wanting to go back to NB flying. The flip side is if the growth doesn't pan out the way laid out in United Next and age 67 passes, there could be stagnation for years to come.

Other companies would surely differ greatly in terms of impact felt. Southwest would arguably have the most stagnation of any U.S. airline, while B6, NK, F9, etc. could feel virtually no effects from this with younger pilot groups for the time being.

I'm starting this thread more as a thought experiment than anything else, as I am curious what others think. At the same time, maybe this thread could even help applicants make decisions down the road in the event this all does become a reality.

Best,
D