Originally Posted by
11atsomto
I don't want this thread to turn into a consultancy so feel free to PM me and I d be more than happy to have you pick my brain..... I will say however:
I'm not a WallStreetsman so I can't predict the economy. It's honorable and respectable that you are concerned about the economic health/potential furlough. It shows you are little but more on the ball than many other swinging sticks.
I'll leave the following guidance, at less than 2 years I don't think you are any less vulnerable for furlough than say a 1 year person at a legacy......(remember think %s of total system seniority) B6 only has 4800 ish pilots.
If you do get furloughed who do you think will start recalling people quicker: A global brand with multiple fleets and 1.8 retirements per day?, or a Niche/low cost/ Long Island City's term du jour carrier who will be integrating with an LCC's pilot group and NO retirements?
Its more involved that that. If there hadn’t been a CARES Act version 1, 2, and 3 during a global pandemic, it would’ve been those global brands that would’ve taken much longer to recall everyone. A place like United sent out roughly 4,000 WARN letters if I recall correctly. Hard to know what JetBlue would’ve done without the NEA LOA, but it would’ve been less than that percentage wise. Impossible to predict what the next Black Swan event will be or you’d be a genius.