Ted, normally I’m in agreement with you, maybe we are just taking past each other a little bit. On this one, Im not sure I would agree with these two things, at least not entirely.

To the first one, sure you can. That’s not true at all. Even with an unlimited age, at some point every single pilot is going to be UNABLE to hold a class 1. Heart attacks, DVT, back issues, diabetes, cancer, whatever. That curve only gets steeper. There will absolutely be more people losing their medical between 65-67 than 63-65 for example. Statistical inevitability. And the upside is that for people who legitimately lose their medical, they get more years of 50%FAE. Not only that, but there are already people who retire with a perfectly good medical before 65. There is no doubt there will be a number who won’t go past 65. There is no way to know how meaningful a number that is, but it will be > 0.

To the second point. If you mean by that it will take longer to climb over the WB A wall, or that if you have a number in mind for yourself short of 65, you won’t have the same seniority, well okay. But if you meant the words you actually used, that’s not true. There are plenty of people who will retire early completely irrespective of proximity to the mandatory retirement age. They are just ‘ready’. They are tired, made enough $, or have a spouse who demands it.

At the end of the day, I just don’t see it being nearly as big a deal as 60-65 was. The fundamentals are totally different with the economy, state of the industry, and hiring environment.