Vacancies will get filled regardless of the TA. I believe the gaps are mostly a function of the hiring environment and early out retirements (post covid environment)

The delta outpaced the decision process for a lot of folks.

The high gline slows upgrades, few want to be on RSV for more than is absolutely necessary.

High inflation destabilized the QOL/financial equation, more difficult to maintain QOL as salary value decreased.

Early retirements created a plateau of retirements for a couple of years so the only seniority gain was by increasing the denominator.

Pretty close?