The $325m loss; the horse is already out of the barn. They will post a loss around $160m next week and probably $115m for Q4, based on estimates. Nothing is changing that, that is done.

Spirit has around 1.4m in cash and investments as of a few months ago

The real question is 2024 and the NEOs plus softening domestic demand with increased fuel costs. Nobody is expecting them to make money next year, it’s a matter of losing less than this year. Hiring 40 FOs a month through the end of the year will result in a reduction of workforce with surely more leaving than 40 a month, so the seniority list with surely shrink this year. Next year they can continue to soft hire resulting in less net pilots, minus attrition, to help with the NEOs.

The NEOs is the big question mark as RTX keeps changing guidance on the engines. It was originally a few hundred planes, now it is 700. Ot was originally going to be 30 days grounding per plane, now they are saying 300 days per plane. Just way too many questions.

I still believe CA VILs and FO “attrition to right size” makes the most sense. That being said, I can’t see many reason for any FO to stay here with the hiring still going on at legacy carriers.