Originally Posted by RemoveB4flght

It's all personal numbers game. UA has just under 17,000 pilots, with 6000 to retire over the next 10 years. Even with growth to 18-20k pilots in that time you are still on the wrong side of 50% seniority at the ten year mark. That's ten years of anything better than junior narrow body reserve at the least desirable base going to anyone senior to you. The next ten years the retirements are half that number, and drops off precipitously from there, putting you somewhere between 35-40% after 20 years depending if UA can hit the 24,000 mark they have stated. Solid narrow body line holding captain in base of choice perhaps, but that's not going to put you in the gravy line widebody skipper shoes. At that point most of the pilots senior to you are likely younger, and that's twenty years of no significant industry/economic events.