Originally Posted by
RemoveB4flght
It's all personal numbers game. UA has just under 17,000 pilots, with 6000 to retire over the next 10 years. Even with growth to 18-20k pilots in that time you are still on the wrong side of 50% seniority at the ten year mark. That's ten years of anything better than junior narrow body reserve at the least desirable base going to anyone senior to you. The next ten years the retirements are half that number, and drops off precipitously from there, putting you somewhere between 35-40% after 20 years depending if UA can hit the 24,000 mark they have stated. Solid narrow body line holding captain in base of choice perhaps, but that's not going to put you in the gravy line widebody skipper shoes. At that point most of the pilots senior to you are likely younger, and that's twenty years of no significant industry/economic events.
I don't believe the UAL growth numbers. But if you are happy being on a NB, and we should be at NK&JB, you can look at UA as a NB operator with 14k pilots, and a separate SL with 3k WB pilots who are far more senior, but don't matter:
At 10 years you would be at 50%, if they grow to 18k, (and at 20 years with 20k pilots, 4k WB, you would be at 25%, (yes, there will be Junior WB FOs, and senior NB captains, but still).
If the merger happens, I don't see NKJB growing at 15% per year, or even doubling in size in the next 10 years. Junior captain at NK is 5 years, with 50%RS, JB 5 years is about 70%. So after JCBA 60% of 8.5k, #5100. Retirements in the next 10 years about 1500 (less than 500@ NK, don't know JB, but probably a bit higher), no growth you would be 42%, 10k pilots 36%. Not a big difference IMHO, especially if you take into consideration giving up 5 years.... (yes, numbers are based of semi-educated guesses, and things can change). But 5 years in and 20 to go I think right now the best time to go UAL would have been last year, and still would leave myself right now if I had that much time left.
Having WBs makes the progression totally different from NK(JB).