Originally Posted by
Bluedriver
Did I not read that upgrades have come to a near halt at NK? You seem to using old data and presenting it as predictive of the future. Also, how quickly you upgraded 7-10 YEARS ago is hardly a data point in the current environment.
You asked about the 320, but I'm not sure if you know this but we also have an Airbus A220, which pays $317 an hour today and $341 and hour left seat August of next year. Do you bid an aircraft to win a Johnson-measuring contest or for money? I'm not going to go data mining the whole seniority list but junior Capt with an effective date of:
June '24 is:
A220 April 19
A320 April 18
Dec '24:
A220 Sept 19
A320 April 18
That system bid closed in Aug 23.
If NK upgrades are slowing now, or have slowed recently as I thought I read here recently, then all your recent year NK data is irrelevant. What was, is not now.
We have many bases and multiple effective dates, I had to look around for the data and could have missed something more junior. But I don't think your characterization of 7-8 year upgrades is fair for JB. Looks to be about 5 on the A220 and 6 on the A320.
My whole point was that upgrade at NK was coming to a grinding halt (regardless of the merger)I assumed that junior 320 was now around 2017, based on it being 2016 a year ago. Your 2024 bid at oct 2018 doesn't really contradict that at all. And yes, you have a handful of 220s, all based where NK doesn't have bases. No one is going to commute from LA to Boston for an earlier upgrade and a seat lock.
if you read my post, in no way was I using those numbers to predict the future. I specifically said I do not believe in 15 % growth, or ual going to 24k....
the reason I mentioned your longer upgrade, is that it means that unless we keep RS after ISL (unlikely) former NK will be stuck behind former JB who can now upgrade.