Originally Posted by symbian simian

I don't believe the UAL growth numbers. But if you are happy being on a NB, and we should be at NK&JB, you can look at UA as a NB operator with 14k pilots, and a separate SL with 3k WB pilots who are far more senior, but don't matter:
At 10 years you would be at 50%, if they grow to 18k, (and at 20 years with 20k pilots, 4k WB, you would be at 25%, (yes, there will be Junior WB FOs, and senior NB captains, but still).
If the merger happens, I don't see NKJB growing at 15% per year, or even doubling in size in the next 10 years. Junior captain at NK is 5 years, with 50%RS, JB 5 years is about 70%. So after JCBA 60% of 8.5k, #5100. Retirements in the next 10 years about 1500 (less than 500@ NK, don't know JB, but probably a bit higher), no growth you would be 42%, 10k pilots 36%. Not a big difference IMHO, especially if you take into consideration giving up 5 years.... (yes, numbers are based of semi-educated guesses, and things can change). But 5 years in and 20 to go I think right now the best time to go UAL would have been last year, and still would leave myself right now if I had that much time left.
Having WBs makes the progression totally different from NK(JB).