Originally Posted by
Excargodog
This is sort of just the opposite of the situation being seen in the regionals right now. But since each flight requires a CA and an FO, they remain interrelated. Typically you need a few percent more CAs than FOs to offset the longer vacations enjoyed by and the greater medical issue time incurred by the old f@rts.
More new FOs were hired because that's where the great bulk of the attrition is and remains, but upgrades have been limited to the number required to gainfully employ the FOs that were being retained. But if you furlough a hundred FOs you decrease the need for CAs by ~110. Except you are correct, you can't furlough them but you also can't gainfully employ them if you don't have enough FOs either. So you either pay them CA Reserve MMG to sit or you do something like displace them to encourage the junior CAs to attrit too. Because even a very jr CA (CA with four years seniority) is costing you over twice what you are saving by furloughing FOs.
Which is why incentivizing VLAs of the most senior people actually may make better economic sense than furloughing the junior guys.
They can furlough and downgrade, but it depends on if they think they’ll need lower staffing for the foreseeable future. I’m sure Ted has all of the numbers crunched already.