I have to disagree with Bluedriver on one point. Everything you are saying passes the sniff test except where you assume NK ALPA will manage JCBA expectations for the NK pilot group. I've seen it a half dozen times - arguments for the "Time-Value" of a pay increase.

A pilot making $250/hour will vote yes for $340/hour much faster than a pilot who is already making $330 an hour.

In other words, a pilot making current NK rates can do the math and figure out a NO vote will cost them $6,000 a month while the Joint NC goes back to the company to renegotiate. Instead of us having time on our side, half our voters are considering the Time-Value of their NO vote.

An NK pilot already making B6 rates can "wait out" the company much longer. He is much less incentivized to vote YES on pay scales alone and he'll consider the rest of the JCBA.