Buying up lines to meet the spread, that's section 4.a.2.c.vi.
Of note
-777 lines make up 27% of all lines.
-SAM in January was 69.3, in February, ~70.5.
-777 Memphis lines stayed constant for both months.
Here's your scenario...
Even if A300/757/MD11/767 domestic BLG averages all went down to 60CHs, and 767O/777A were 68CH, and 777M were 78 (what its been the last two bid periods). We'd still only have a SAM ~65CH
So let's go further...
The A300/757/MD11/767 Domestic BLGs would have to fall to 58CHs before we'd enter 4a2c territory with a SAM ~63.75CH.
Assuming 777M stays constant at 78CH...78 - 58, equals a 20CH gap. They could enter 4a2c and reduce BLGs buy closing the gap, but they'd have to buy up the lines to an average of 65CHs.
This would satisfy
4a2c.ii/iii, but most pilots would only be taking a 3CH hit to their min BLG. Still saves company money, but it wouldn't be a 'huge' hit to the pilots.
But now lets go further into sectoin 4a2 with regards to furlough.
Pat D. was fear mongering that ~29 domestic cities would lose day service. Dont think* that'd drive SAM from ~70 to less than 64CH....
60 domestic flights a day doesn't seem equivalent to an 8.5% reduction in flying/CHs with regards to SAM.
But running with that scenario. The company has made their way to 4a2c.vi with the buy-up values enabling them to lower min BLGs (4a2c)
But then there's 4a2c.vii....They need to publish a bid to re-balance flying/manning, effectively bringing that split closer together. This last bid is in no way solving the manning issue and the spread will remain.
It's basically keeping M777 Captains at status quo (when factoring in retirements/etc), and M777 FO's from ~720 to ~800. And I'd argue we'd have to have another bid with a true excess for an 8.5% overall reduction of flying.
Adding more pilots to the 777 fleet and diluting those lines would seem to make the bid pack highly innefficient. You're talking ALOT of deadheads.
Now, whats cheaper? Paying for business class deadheads or buying up lines?? Dont know, can't do that math.
Continuing on with furlough scenario...
The SAM still has to fall below 56CHs, section 4.A.2.c.x.
That's a 20% decrease from the current ~70.5CH SAM.
But after all that, with SAMs below 56CHs, the company can finally implement section 23.A.1.a, which states, "no furlough shall occur pror to the application of Sections 4.A.2.b. and c."
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So we lose postal contract starting October 2024. We need 2 months of the SAM <64CHs to emplement 4a2c.
Oh, but wait, Peak starts November. And that'll likely keep us above 64CHs to close out 2024.
So the 2 month clock starts in January 2025. We also need a system bid. Then we also need the SAM to drop below 54CH. Which to get there from 70CH, is an additional 12.5% of reduced flying on top of the lost postal contract (8.5% plus 12.5% equals 20%).
And this all assumes no retirements. How many people are retiring between now and March 2025?
At least 156 through end of 2024.
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So are furloughs possible? They're always possible.
Likely? No.
Hence my original statement, Pat's fantastical story about 4a2b by February, 4a2c by May, and furloughs by October (postal contract)....