Originally Posted by
cons
A reversion to the mean. Essentially, the labor market has/will plateau and eventually return to former/normal levels. IF you get hired at your stepping stone carrier, whether 121 or 135, be prepared to stay there for a while since competitive hiring numbers will increase. Mis dos centavos.
Correct. We've seen these cycles many times and the only real variable is the lengths of the booms and busts. The surprising shortness of the COVID bust combined with generous early-out packages has conspired to make this boom longer than average but it will end like all the ones before. As stated though, planned hiring is still way above historical norms in 2024.
When I was in flight school American Eagle required about 5,000 hours to fly a Saab 340 for $19/hr. A few years later Republic required 3,000 hours to fly a 170 for $23/hr. So I'd say things are still pretty good for 1500 hour pilots even if they are slightly worse than they were a year ago.