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Old 09-27-2024 | 08:42 AM
  #132  
Fly90
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Originally Posted by RJSAviator76
OK, now that everyone has gotten their inner Negative Nancy out, cried a river about stagnation, considered going to SkyWest as DEC... let's get back to reality.

We are stagnant with respect to number of airframes due to Washington DC stupidity and Boeing's troubles. Zero reason other than political johnson measuring that MAX 7 isn't certified... the damn thing was used to re-certify MAX 8 after the groundings. But whatever... it will eventually get certified. In fact, I think that's going to be the biggest spike in our stock price, and that's part of the reason why I think Elliott is here - to do some cleaning and enjoying the big spike when Boeing (and the FAA) get their act together.

However, we are NOT stagnant with respect to retirements because we haven't even hit our age 65 wave yet, nor have we hired ahead of it. Looking at myseniority.com, in 7 years, assuming 0% growth (not very likely) and only retention of the same number of pilots on the seniority list (again, not very likely), that's around 22-25% movement in just retirements. For someone hired post pandemic, that'll put them in the 7-9 years-on-the-property upgrade range which is within our norms. This is not accounting for any possible expansions or overlap.

As for ATL realignment... that's literally what it is. They're beefing up BNA. There are no furloughs or downgrades, just realignment of crews and movement to more lucrative markets. It's all been explained via the company channels.

Put away the SkyWest DEC application, you're fine.

Good read. You think we haven't hired for the retirements? My worry is we basically stop hiring for next 3-5 years and see very little movement. My schedule is fine so I can't really complain, but I haven't moved at all this year.

Sounds like upgrade times are going to be long over at Delta too, especially for anyone hired after this year. So maybe the ole 10 year upgrade isn't so bad? Ha. American is a dumpster fire so it's not of any interest. United, I'm not sure what their future upgrade times will look like.
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