It seems to me that there have been two major changes in the airline industry in the last year. First, the mandatory retirement age was raised from 60 to 65. Without a doubt that caused an initial slowdown in hiring at major airlines. I know of a pilot at CHQ who was hired by Southwest late last summer, but wasn't given a class date until five or six weeks ago.

Second and most importantly, oil has doubled in the last year and risen by amazing 35% in just the last month and a half. Today, AA said their fuel costs have gone up by $1.7 billion in just the last seven weeks! Airlines can't function with oil at this level and staffing levels are now catching up to that fact.

So we have these two issues, but how long will they last? How long before airlines are once again hiring new pilots? My view is it may not be as long as we think. I base my opinion mainly on the price of oil. It's price is now completely divorced from supply and demand. I like to follow the markets and this run up is just like the internet bubble of 1999. We all know how that ended.

Too many smart people on TV and in print are warning that oil is headed for a huge bust. Their warnings are much the same as those issued in 1999. Oil may well hit $150, but the end of this run up is almost here. It may not come until the fall, but oil prices will go down. When oil breaks, it will break quickly and that will be good news for airlines. Oil at $90, while not cheap, would still represent a 30% decline from it's currnet levels and that can only help airlines.

If oil prices lose their speculative aspect, the return of hiring will once again depend on attrition at the majors. A large number of retirements were due in the coming years, but it's not clear how those pilots will handle another five years on the line. I suspect many will work an extra two or three years, but not five. While that pushes things down the road, it doesn't look as bleak as some might have you believe.

I'm 31 and still hold out hope of working for an airline. Financially, I can wait another year or so for the chance, but I'm very discouraged by the news today. I had pinned a lot of hope on an interview with Eagle, but that's not going to happen now. I hope those who are discouraged like me can look at the factors causing this slowdown and understand they can change quickly. There have been many busts in the airlines over the lat 30 years, but booms always follow.

Unlike so many other busts, this one is not consumer related.