Originally Posted by
tallpilot
Hopefully we'll get a little color during SotA this week and during the earnings call. I imagine it will be near the end of summer though before they will decide on the fall schedule based on forward bookings. I can't see forward bookings but I can see load factors and so far there is no cause for alarm.
The other wildcard is deliveries. I expect Max and 787 deliveries to accelerate and 321NEOs to decelerate, at least until some trade deals are reached. It would be nice to grab a few China rejected 777-300ERs but that's mostly wishful thinking on my part.
If they don't trim the schedule in the fall and especially if they keep taking delivery of airplanes without retiring older ones then they either hire or we can print money with premium.
Yield is the only thing that matters. You can fill planes with $25 transcon tickets, but you're not making any money doing so.
Originally Posted by
joepilot50
That is because current loads were booked awhile back without the uncertainty of things tossed in. Fall/winter holiday season will be the better tell of where aviation will settle with all what is going on right now.
This tariff stuff will all be over by then. Either one way or the other. Even if they go through on May 2nd (they won't) the shelves of every store in America will be completely bare by April 3rd. It'll be covid all over again except instead of toilet paper, it's the entire store of every Walmart, Home Depot, Target etc.
I think we'll be business as usual over the summer (hopefully!).
Once that happens the entire US population will be calling for the POTUS's head. The way to do this was a 10 year plan, not a two week thing everyone knows was 100% a bluff.