There's probably no outrage because we've collectively given up on International scope. Most just show up for work, maximize their paycheck, and go home. I don't blame them. I think our last good chance at fixing INTL scope was the ALPA card drive. APA has demonstrated over the last 20 years that they're just not up to the task. There was an effective anti-ALPA campaign assisted by general apathy. Arguments ranging from "ALPA screwed me 30 years ago" to "it will just be the same guys."


Delta spent a lot of negotiating capital obtaining a "global scope" which forces international growth on the Delta side when their Joint Venture partners add new flying. I have no clue what UAL has in that department but I'm guessing it's something similar.


Here's the AA Joint Venture clause:

Joint Ventures

1. The parties agree to work toward a fair allocation of flying for the Company in Joint Business

Agreements ("JBAs"). The Association has the right to review JBAs and any material

changes going forward. During the parties' Quarterly Scope meetings, the Company will

discuss and receive input from the Association regarding current and anticipated JBAs.


Our international scope is just a formula which looks at international "baseline hours." Effectively AA is required to maintain 90% of the previous year's total International block hours. There are penalties and remedies if they fall below the 90% or 80% threshold. There is zero mechanism for capturing growth flying and no requirement (as far as I can tell) for certain aircraft to perform this flying. It could be done by 321XLRs and remain in compliance.

The scenario I would be worried about if I was planning on a Group 4 CA slot in the next 10 years is the parking of the 772s. I believe we have about 50 321XLRs on order and 47 772s that are supposed to be retired starting in the 2030-2035 timeframe. That's 1,400 Group IV jobs at risk as early as 2030. We have to consider the fact that Isom has delayed our existing order of 787s multiple times because AA struggles to make money internationally. I'm wondering how they will bring on 50 321XLRs plus roughly 26 more 787-9P orders plus a large 772 replacement order of 50 Group IV aircraft. They also have to square this with their number 1 priority, repairing the balance sheet. If I was going to bet money I would guess he will just go with our eventual fleet of +-90 787s and 50 321XLRs with our JV partners operating everything else. Our international flying hours will remain consistent but there's a good chance our total Group IV jobs could be lower in 10 years. The XLRs could service most of S. America, much of Western Europe and the 787s could cover LHR, HND, SYD, etc. Alaska could pick up the slack to the Pacific along with JAL and QA. BA could continue to do the heavy lifting from LHR. I tend to be glass half empty with AA so hopefully I'm dead wrong with this forecast. If we don't address INTL scope with our next contract then we deserve whatever we get.