“..when their entire order book is delivered”. Delta notoriously doesn’t order many years out - in fact the wide-body order book extends just to 2028. The 20 options from the 35K is assuredly going to exercised soon as well per DL’s historical ordering practices. No US carrier will order the 777X (simply too big) and you say AA will 1:1 the 777’s for more WB’s but refuse to think DL will do the same to their 763 WB’s?

Existing 330’s are replacing 763’s - what’s replacing those pulled 330’s? (787 possibly 2029-2030 or more 330 orders). Delta hasn’t made those orders yet - DL is a WB Airbus carrier and the tariffs will shake things up on timetables/potentially going to Boeing.

United’s order book extends into deep 2030’s (~240 WB’s with all 787+777-300ER when it’s done) and American’s until 2029. If you add DL’s 764+350+330 fleet in addition to existing WB orders and options it equates to 186 WB aircraft by 2028.

Other factors:
1) Delta’s new Global Scope which will force Delta to grow 1:1 WB hours with all partners.. IndiGo & Riyadh set to be Delta partners - Asiana merging into Skyteam. VS, LATAM, AM, WS, SK, MU, CI are all growing in WB’s - DL has too match each one.
2) Delta’s desire for WB’s TATL vs. NB (no desire for XLR).
3) AMS/CDG/ICN much more room to accommodate TPAC/TATL growth vs. LHR/HND/MAD
4) AA is retreating in JFK, giving AS its west-coast flying/no AA west-coast hub, its European partners incentivize (due to be so close to Atlantic side) no AA-overflying of LHR/MAD. DL has three strong TATL gateways (BOS, ATL, JFK) and two TPAC (LAX, SEA). [Two WB categories added less than a year apart BOS330/SEA350 and SLC350 becoming more likely soon with JFK350 becoming more of a reality after the 35K arrival].
5) AA has no scope protection and weaker financial footing at the moment vs. Delta whom is focusing on intl. growth

I expect by mid 2030’s UA will have around 240 pay-scale WB’s, AA at 180, and DL at 220 give or take. AA can absolutely turn it all around and acutely start growing intl. at some point, but quit trying to downplay Delta’s current game plan. The days of “DL shipping WB’s to JV’s” are assuredly over with the Scope addition - more JV’s/partner’s now = more DL WB flying.

https://d2r1lrrqctgamh.cloudfront.ne...A/NN-23-03.pdf