I get the point you are making about empty toward hardship, and there is definitely validity to it.
That said, as a separate issue, I think it is important to point out that some of the data used is no longer valid, and I'd hate for someone to make a career decision going forward with old data/expectations.
I can only speak intelligently about DL. While there
was a short period, induced by the post-Covid recovery, where the bold was true in small numbers, DL has barely hired 500 this year, is on a pause (for reasons beyond the scope here), and will not resume until 2026. Even before this pause, competitive hiring mins had come up
significantly off the post-Covid bottom. The most recent NH's I have flown with were at a regional for 3-4 years+, not any less.
Same for upgrade timing, which has progressively trended more and more senior, and is currently about 80% for NB CA, and 70% for WB FO. Assuming no topline growth, someone hired tomorrow will need roughly 3500 pilots hired after them for NB CA, and 5000 hired after them for WB FO to have the first opportunity at upgrade (and would probably require a commute). How long will in take the next hire to reach those levels? In 4-5 years, It could easily be more senior than that. Regardless, there is
zero chance a NH today will see the speed of opportunities that the 2021-2022 hires saw. They were extraordinarily lucky. That's just how the industry goes. The last 2 years of DL data is
here, for anyone curious.
I don't say any of this to be discouraging, only to manage realistic expectations and hopefully assist folks in making decisions based on current info. Again, I can't speak intelligently about UA/AA, but I doubt they are much different. I hope it helps.
Best of luck. Everyone I fly with is pulling for you folks, truly. I hope we resume hiring soon and pickup every one of you we can.