So, again....

Let's say you own a burger joint. There are 5 good burger joints that offer the same in terms of quality, speed of service, etc. You're not a gourmet burger joint nor are you exclusively value menu (super small White Castle type). You offer a decent 1/8' burger grilled with condiments. Then, you find out your most similar competitor (that has burger joints in the cities you do - as well as in other cities that you don't) goes out of business. Just how much of their lost business should you expect?

This is a somewhat common question/problem found in business schools everywhere. And the answer is - in most of them (at least the good ones) - IT DEPENDS. The factors involved are so numerous and changing that it could never be predicted.

F9 could see a drastic increase in similar markets such as DFW, ATL, MCO, LAS and maybe even MIA/FLL area. Or, Spirit going bankrupt MAY actually hurt given that now, other airlines DON'T have to price match NK anymore in markets that F9 doesn't serve (allowing them to increase prices back in those markets and reduce prices in F9 only markets). Additionally, if NK gives up gate space in DFW, LAS, MCO and ATL, does anyone really think F9 will be the highest bidder?

Just about EVERY market starts out w/ tons of competition and is whittled down to those better managed and invested in. As smaller businesses die off, it usually ends up helping the LARGER ones the most.

NK going bankrupt is worse than us merging with them...