Take what he said into consideration, but only as the book-end for the extreme pessimist view. Just about everyone upgrading now could have upgraded earlier but chose not to. The numbers that this dude is looking at don't tell you how soon they *could have* upgraded, only how long it took for it to be available to them again after they made the conscious decision not to bid for it. We have lots of planes on order. Our union is top notch. Training churn for the heavies is going to put a lot of holes in the 737 pilot roster. Upgrade for SEA 737 is 4 years at DL? We probably won't beat that, but it will be in the ballpark, provided people upgrade when it's possible and don't roll the dice on waiting like these guys did. Don't get me wrong, I think there are valid reasons to stay an FO, but if you skip the upgrade when an upgrade is available and remain an FO for 10 years, you can't turn around and then claim that the upgrade time is 10 years. It's not all doom and gloom, and most people at Alaska are not doom and gloomers.