Originally Posted by
word302
Show your math. Reductions do not change the fact that we are adding net captains. The same FOs that want to be captains bid whether reductions exist or not. If you understand math (complex I know) you'd know that reductions with a net gain in captains should not change that trend. Also you just prove the point that picking some random date in the past is a silly way to talk about growth/progression. Why don't you want to use September of 2021 as your gold standard of growth? Oh yeah, because it doesn't fit your doomsday diatribe. The point I was making is that hiring completely stopped and using any time during that 18 months is going to paint a different picture than if you pick a date before or after that. You choose to cherry-pick data that fits your agenda (and it's a weird agenda) just like you did with fleet count. You'll do the same thing you did with the fleet, you'll scream the same thing over and over again until it's no longer true and then quiet down for a bit until you find something else to take out of context and be angry about. It's old and tired man and nobody is listening.
The real unknown variable is how many senior FO's decide to upgrade. There are a ton of them and if they see an opportunity here with the base opening, then the handful of net upgrades will do little to stem the carnage. Remember they do the vacancy first and then the displacements. You can assume all of the SEA Capt vacancies will go to senior FO's. Some SEA CA might go south, but probably not many. What are the senior LAX FO's going to do? If they take a bunch of the proffered captain slots as current LAX captains move to SAN, then the displacement portion of the bid will be a bloodbath. Same question with SFO. If the senior FO's in California like being senior FO's and don't upgrade, then everything will be not so bad. But if they are ready for a change, then things will get ugly quick. I really don't have a barometer on how this will go down, but it would be foolish to discount the threat of significant downgrades.